The midterm elections are over, and Democrats won majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. It is big political news, and many of our clients have asked the same question since: what does it mean for my case? The honest answer is that in the short term it does not change very much, and in the long term it opens a door that is still far from certain.
Why little changes in the short term
The reason is simple. The executive branch is still under the control of the Trump administration, and that is where almost every part of the immigration system lives. ICE, Border Patrol, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the immigration courts, which are part of the Department of Justice, and the U.S. consulates overseas all answer to the president. An election in Congress does not change who runs those agencies or how they apply the law today.
That means ICE is still active, and arrests are still going to happen. Congress has also already given the administration the tools it asked for. The 2025 budget law, signed on July 4, 2025, set aside roughly $170 billion for immigration and border enforcement, including $75 billion in additional funding for ICE. That money is already committed, and none of it disappears because of this election.
What voters actually shifted
What did shift is the tone. Voters pushed back hard on the party in power, and while every election has many causes, including the economy, foreign policy and immigration, it is fair to say that many people had had enough. Some of the winners made immigration a central part of their campaigns, and their promises show how differently politicians see the issue.
On one side, Xavier Becerra, the new governor of California, has promised to use state courts and state laws to resist federal enforcement and to keep state police out of ICE raids. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa has said she would stop using the National Guard to support ICE and would demand more transparency from the agency, including body camera footage. Deb Haaland, the new governor of New Mexico, has proposed limiting ICE's coordination with state and local resources and requiring ICE agents to identify themselves.
On the other side, Byron Donalds, the new governor of Florida, has said he would continue Florida's partnerships between local police and ICE, known as 287(g) agreements, and oppose any path to legal status for people without papers. Julia Letlow, who won a U.S. Senate seat in Louisiana, has called for deporting people with criminal records, defunding sanctuary cities and backing ICE's current approach. And Marsha Blackburn, the new governor of Tennessee, has backed the administration's immigration policy and the border wall.
It is important to remember what these promises can and cannot do. Immigration law is federal, so governors cannot change who qualifies for a green card, asylum or a work permit. What states can do is decide how much state and local resources go toward helping federal enforcement. A governor who limits cooperation with ICE changes how local police behave, but ICE can still operate in every state.
The longer-term picture
Looking further ahead, the picture could become more favorable. Changing immigration law requires both chambers of Congress to agree, and with Democrats now holding the majority in each, there is at least a chance that reform moves forward. But that is only half of the process. A bill also needs a president willing to sign it, so for now this stays theoretical.
We would love to see this election push the administration to change its approach to immigration. Based on what we have seen so far, we are skeptical.
What this means for your case
If you are facing an immigration case next week, next month or next year, the administration is still in command of the agencies that will decide it. Approvals will likely remain very difficult over the next two years, and possibly longer, given the judicial appointments and assignments of recent years.
The best response is to get ready earlier and more carefully, not to wait for the law to catch up. Keep your documents organized, attend every appointment and hearing, and check any new rumor against an official source such as USCIS.gov before acting on it. If you are not sure how this affects your situation, talk to an immigration attorney before making a decision about filing, travel or work.
Do you need more information about your case in the new political landscape? Call our Oakland office at (510) 574-7377 or visit us at 1900 Embarcadero, Suite 310, Oakland, CA 94606. |
This article is general information based on news reporting and campaign statements. It is not legal advice, and what any elected official can do depends on federal and state law.
Sources: the American Immigration Council, CBS News, CalMatters, KUT, Floridian Press, Deb Haaland's campaign, Julia Letlow's campaign, The Advocate, and Fox News.